Wednesday, August 31, 2011

What's Making Money This Year and Why

Since May, it is has come to feel like the stock market is a bad place to be, yet it is only down about 3 percent for 2011 as of this writing.

It feels worse for two reasons. It was down almost 20% at one point from the spring high. That's a big correction and makes it feel worse than it is.  The second reason is, you like many other people who are concerned about business, probably feel a little bad. You don't feel as confident about the economy and suspect our leadership doesn't have a handle on it. Even worse, it is reasonable to suspect some might be happy for things to go bad just to gain a political advantage. 

There's also a third reason it seems worse than it is. The market isn't trading well. The price moves are very exaggerated and for that we can thank the computer driven trading models that make up more than half the daily turn in stocks and serve to increase the disorder in the market on down days. Yes they are manipulating the markets for their own benefits.  I wonder why the regulator, the SEC, has permitted it?

In this environment of malaise and weak confidence, what has made quite a bit of money are investments that benefit from fear and discouragement. Gold is up over 26% this year and long term bonds are up a lot too, as much as 18% or more. Cash levels are also very very high amongst investors and companies as they stand aside waiting and watching. 

Real problems, real bad leaders and market manipulators are stalking our portfolios this year.  That is the truth of it, but some types of investments have worked and in a properly diversified portfolio have added   return.